Working Groups

Working Group 2 (WG2) focuses on linking multi-hazard knowledge with extended-range forecasting to better characterise and predict interacting hazards across Europe. It builds on WG1 by using ensemble forecasts and datasets such as those from ECMWF and Copernicus services to analyse hazard dynamics and assess prediction skill across spatial and temporal scales. A key task for WG2 is to evaluate how well extended-range models can forecast multi-hazard events, identifying strengths and gaps through testbed case studies. For this WG2 will build on the knowledge from WG1 to foster the use of state-of-the-art multivariate hybrid frameworks that combine non-stationary copulas for high-dimensional interdependence modelling using new AI/ML techniques to replace statistical empirical prediction models. These approaches also support the development of impact-based, disaster-specific forecasting tools by integrating hazard and impact data. The final step of WG3 will be the implementation of a “Ready-Set-Go” framework, linking seasonal, extended-range, and short-range forecasts to support staged decision-making from early planning to immediate response. Alongside research, WG2 engages stakeholders to validate predictions, communicate uncertainties, and co-develop tailored forecasting products while strengthening capacity for future operational collaboration and risk reduction.